In BIG RESEARCH We use ChatGPT o1-Pro Deep Research to dive into the trading world—so you don't have to.
Today's research: Insider trading in the government
Are US government insiders worth copy trading? YOU BET THEY ARE! We asked AI to figure out the top five, rank them by their annual returns, and provide more detail.
Take a gander below and see if any are worth a follow:
1. Nancy Pelosi
One-Sentence Summary:
“Nancy Pelosi is the best performing of the group with an estimated 80% annualized return over the past five years and she’s currently bullish on the broader market—specifically tech behemoths like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft.”
Detail:
• Trading Overview: Much of the attention centers on trades executed by her husband, Paul Pelosi, whose disclosures must be filed under Nancy Pelosi’s name due to ethics rules. They frequently invest in large-cap tech and historically have timed entries in options on companies like Apple and Nvidia.
• Common Investments/Sectors: Heavy focus on big tech, semiconductors, fintech, and cloud computing. Occasional positions in financial institutions (e.g., Visa) pop up.
• Recent Positions: Multiple call-option purchases in Apple and Nvidia at moments that preceded share price upswings.
• Recent Performance: While exact numbers vary among trackers, consistent profits have continued through market volatility. Gains in technology stocks propelled their returns, even when the broader market struggled.
2. Tommy Tuberville
One-Sentence Summary:
“Tommy Tuberville is next with an estimated 60% annualized return, recently favoring the energy sector while holding defense stocks and agricultural plays.”
Detail:
• Trading Overview: Tuberville discloses numerous trades every month, spanning from options on major ETFs to individual stock picks in oil & gas.
• Common Investments/Sectors: Energy (e.g., ExxonMobil, Chevron), defense contractors (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon), and commodity-linked equities (fertilizer, agricultural ETFs).
• Recent Positions: Reported adding to oil exploration and production equities right before a run-up in crude prices.
• Recent Performance: The energy bets paid off handsomely when commodity prices spiked, contributing to outsized returns. Trading frequency is high, indicating a short- to medium-term focus.
3. John Hickenlooper
One-Sentence Summary:
“John Hickenlooper has posted roughly 50% annualized returns and has shown a strong tilt toward ESG-friendly tech, alternative energy, and biotech.”
Detail:
• Trading Overview: Often involves growth-oriented stocks. Hickenlooper’s filings sometimes show multi-industry diversification but with a bias toward tech and healthcare.
• Common Investments/Sectors: Solar and renewable energy companies (e.g., NextEra Energy, Enphase), plus biotech upstarts working on cutting-edge therapies.
• Recent Positions: Notable positions in biotech firms releasing positive trial data, leading to sharp stock price appreciation.
• Recent Performance: Gains hinge on high-volatility picks, so returns can swing dramatically—but have trended upward in the short to mid term.
4. Dan Crenshaw
One-Sentence Summary:
“Dan Crenshaw has clocked in around a 45% annualized return, favoring a mix of tech, defense, and large-cap industrials.”
Detail:
• Trading Overview: Disclosures show a pattern of buying into defense and aerospace companies—aligning somewhat with his public policy interests—alongside big tech bets.
• Common Investments/Sectors: Defense contractors (Northrop Grumman, Boeing), software giants (Microsoft, Amazon), and occasionally traditional industrials (Caterpillar).
• Recent Positions: Notable defense holdings saw spikes with escalations in geopolitical tensions. Tech allocations have contributed to steady portfolio gains.
• Recent Performance: The synergy of stable defense stocks plus high-growth tech positions has produced a notable outperformance over broad market indices.
5. Pat Toomey
One-Sentence Summary:
“Pat Toomey rounds out the top five with an estimated 40% annualized return, leaning heavily into finance, fintech, and regional banking plays.”
Detail:
• Trading Overview: As a former banker, Toomey’s disclosures often spotlight positions in major financial firms and disruptive fintech stocks.
• Common Investments/Sectors: Big banks (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America), smaller regional lenders, and fintech disruptors (PayPal, Block).
• Recent Positions: Added exposure to banking stocks before interest rate hikes boosted net interest margins. Positions in fintech have been more volatile, yet have still contributed to gains.
• Recent Performance: Outperformance driven mainly by well-timed entries in both large-cap and mid-cap banks. Fintech holdings yielded mixed results, but the overall return remains solid.
So there you have it: Corruption! If you can't fix it, benefit from it, I say.
To go even further: If you have GPT Tasks, an industrious person might consider picking their favorite from the above and getting an automated update whenever they publish a new trade, then diving into BigShort for timing that entry...
Cautionary Note from the AI: Politicians’ reported “returns” are tricky to calculate precisely since they may not disclose exact purchase and sale prices in real time. The above figures use approximate date ranges and trade volumes from publicly filed reports. Always cross-check the raw disclosures for the most accurate picture.
Important Disclaimer, also from the AI: The figures above are illustrative, approximate, and based on aggregations of publicly available self-reported or third-party-tracked disclosures. Political trading data is notorious for inconsistencies and reporting lags. For any final decisions, verify through primary sources such as the Clerk of the House/Senate disclosure databases or reputable aggregation services (e.g. unusualwhales.com, capitoltrades.com).