Context
We're looking at SPY on the SF Segregated chart at the end of the day on April 8th 2025. To analyze this we'll be looking at prior days' views so we can see what was seen those days and hunt for signal.
We're using the daily timeframe and the Net Option Flow (Martian)(Beta) option turned on. If your Net Option Flow settings are unchanged (default), they will look a bit different.
Analysis
It's been a WILD few days of tariffs and market volatility. Swing traders using BigShort (myself included!) were able to make significant wins over the past days' drama. Here's what SPY has looked like over the past weeks:
Here's one thing that helped us BigShort swing traders take advantage:
As we look at SPY below over the past weeks from April 2nd (before the crash), first, we notice the clear price trend that began on February 20th (down). SPY closed the day on Feb 20 at $610 and fell over the ensuing weeks to $564 for an initial decrease of 7.5% over 29 trading days.
When we look into the BigShort flows (below), what do we see?
Two of the flows are predictive at first, then all three align (Image below: red arrow = not predictive. Green arrow.= Predictive). From this we can see that, for SPY on this timeframe and context, Momoflow and NOFA are predictive and SF is less so. In fact, SF appears to be inversely predictive recently (like Momo is).
So then, April 3rd, what do we see? (below) Even though April 3rd was a hugely down day, we see the biggest bearish indicators of the past two months! The chart is telling us that the crash will continue the next day!
SmartFlow (which hasn't been predictive recently) flips SUPER bearish with the huge selling day. (green oval)
Momo (which has been very predictive) has the biggest bearish shadow bar in months. (red oval)
Net Option Flow has the biggest put buying day in many months (purple oval) and NOFA takes a giant dive to a much lower angle (purple arrow).
All three agree and BigShort swing traders know - it's time to buy puts.
The following day (April 4th) does turn out to be extremely red, as predicted. Over -3% in one day. HUGE for traders using options.
And that day tells us even more info about the next day (below). What do we see?
Smartflow flips bullish again with a giant candle. (green oval)
Momo stays bearish, in a giant candle. (red oval)
NOF flips bullish with both a monster amount of put selling (bullish) and a moderate mount of call buying (bullish) (purple oval).
So on April 4th, what do we know about the NEXT trading day, April 7th?
We have a downward price channel over weeks.
We have a violent downward price move that was predicted by three indicators flipping into agreement.
An now we have 2/3 of our indicators flipped bullish
We know that the next day is likely in for a change. Since the signals are mixed, traders would be reasonable to get out (and stay out) here.
More aggressive traders can take the bullish signals as a prediction of a relief rally. Some of our BigShort traders made this bounce trade successfully.
BigShort's founder Tae even called this bounce perfectly on the Members Only Discord channel (even while sick!).
So even if our traders weren't looking closely at the indicators, the info was shared open with all of them on April 4th two hours before market open (7:24am EDT).
This call ended up being dead-on the following trading day. Not only was it a big bounce, but it bounced right in Tae's predicted range.
As you can see in the NOF chart, SPY had the largest day of put buying in years by a huge margin that day which forecasted the following red day (after a gap up on mixed news of tariffs being removed).
BigShort traders who followed the above signals have ridden a -8% trade in 3.5 trading days. Many traders have earned their BigShort subscription several times over in the past days (including me, see my weekly performance screenshot below).
BigShort swing traders use the daily view, NOF, Momo, SmartFlow, and Discord to make clear and consistent entries and exits and thrive in volatile trading environments.